Mitchbet

Following a very successful Bendigo meeting with 3 of our 4 top selections winning, I’m taking a look at the Colac meeting this Sunday. There are two races early in the card where I want to have a play.

Race one:

In a race with a few moderate types, I’m looking to horses with upside that can improve. Keeping that in mind, Tintinwin (5) for Lindsey Smith has that written all over him. Being by Ocean Park, I wouldn’t have expected anything from him in his three jumpouts before his first start at Ararat. That run at Ararat he just ambled around at the unsuitable distance of 1100m. Smith’s horses usually improve with race fitness, and stepping up to 1600m, I can bet on him at $8.50.

I concede Marco Spada (4) is a legitimate danger. But by backing him, you have to hope he can make the step to 1600m. You’re taking $3.70 to find out and I don’t think there’s value to take that chance.

The favourite The Onion Thief (9) comes out of a race against Archie Alexander’s Harmony Nation, who I have a bit of time for. Had every chance to win that day but is now rock bottom at $2.40.

Wolf Whistle (3) has the blinkers on for the first time, but that looks like a last roll of the dice to get some improvement before going to the paddock.

Tintinwin can hopefully get the job done with natural improvement and fitness, and you’re getting a nice each way price to find out.

Race two:

A 3yo maiden over 1200m is the next on the card, and I can’t go past Bellicosity (1) for Maher and Eustace. Looked really good in a jumpout at Cranbourne before his first up assignment at Mornington. Looked to be cruising and did hit the line strongly without winning. At another track, could have gone straight by them and he might have struggled going around the Mornington bend.

Zagusto (10) will be looking to jump well from barrier 10, shoot across and give them something to chase. If you wanted to play things really safe, you could have a saver bet on him in case he gets it very easy out the front.

Happy to take anything more than $2.50 for Bellicosity. John Allen should be able to keep him out of trouble and with a turn of foot, have him in the finish.