Mitchbet

Looking at the Victorian racing calendar, I had circled this Warrnambool meeting with a little bit of excitement as it’s one of my favourite tracks to bet at. Ballarat Synthetic aside of course. However, when I saw the first two races were Highweight class, it took some of the pep out of my step.

The weather forecast looks good, the rail is back in the true position and there are a few nice races left on the card to bet into regardless.

Please note: preview posted before fixed odds were available.

Races one and two:

Your best bet is to pick up a bit of extra work around the office. Volunteer to run a few errands. Or maybe give the Mrs a call and ask how her day is? Either way, you don’t want to be getting involved here.

Race three:

This race looks like a real challenge to work out. 8 starts in total between 7 runners and more than half the field are locals. The form from the first up run of (2) Home Rule has stacked up really strongly. He paired off with a horse called Realeza, who then won again in a class 1 next start. 5L behind them was a horse Braekhus who went to Horsham and knocked off his maiden too. Two and a half months between runs without a jumpout is the query, otherwise I’d be having a substantial bet.

(4) Cracker Belle looked to have some ability in the Terang jumpout on the 2nd of February. The stable have a great relationship with the breed and Dean Yendall on board could be a sign of intent. Being by Crackerjack King though, I think it might be more prudent to just watch and wait till he steps up in trip.

Depending on price, I don’t think Noether is the worst horse in the field. For starters, she’s by far the most expensive runner in the race (150k purchase by Hinchinbrook) and is trained on the track. Her two starts have been on a soft 6 at Ballarat and a heavy 10 at Werribee. The blinkers will hopefully sharpen her up and she could be a big improver.

Definitely not the end of the chances, but you can’t back them all. I’ll be having a win bet on Home Rule and a much smaller bet on Noether if they put up a silly price.

Race four:

I think there is a really smart horse in this race and it could be one you need to snap up the price as early as possible. (6) The Garden has had two very nice recent jumpouts to prepare him for his race debut. The first, he hung out the back and cruised to the line under no riding. The second he was alongside a habitual jumpout star Zorro’s Dream. In a race with a bit less depth than the previous, The Garden is a clear standout.

Out of the others, Kasami for Henry Dwyer looks to have the most upside. It’s a personal thing but I find it really hard to catch any of Henry Dwyer’s horses.

In any case, I think everyone else is running for second place here and if they put up any price better than $2 for The Garden, I’ll be having a decent bet.

Race five:

It’s a six horse field and my top pick will probably be most people’s sixth top rater, (5) Minatory. In three career starts he’s beaten a total of three runners home, but the only maiden in the field hasn’t been anywhere near his ideal trip. The gelding by Americain has recently had a 1000m jumpout between runs and you can’t help but feel like Patrick Ryan Jnr has done this as a set play. It isn’t the first time he’s entered a maiden to take on some better credentialed runners.

In a race where some are ticking the legs over before a jumps campaign, I’m happy to take a chance on the horse that may have this as a target race, Minatory.

Race seven:

A pair of interesting runners clash in this race and it brings up a few questions. Firstly, why has Shea Eden brought All Tiara to Warrnambool on the same day there is a meeting in Pakenham, just down the road from his Cranbourne base? Secondly, how well has Soweto Haze been working at home for trainer Nathan Hobson? He nominated her for the $75,000 race at Swan Hill last Tuesday but was just balloted out. On this basis, these two have come into this race with the strongest winning claims.

I’ve got (5) All Tiara slightly ahead of (3) Soweto Haze. The ex-NSW trained mare had her first run for the stable at Sandown with no trial or jumpout. The run was a lot better than it looks on paper too. She travelled really well but it looked like fitness gave out in the last 200m. She raced around benchmark 65 grade in NSW and you’d figure that there’s improvement to be had with a run under the belt.

Soweto Haze has been getting back in the field in her most recent races, while also being burdened with 63kgs. The 1.5 kg claim for stable apprentice Madison Lloyd here brings her further into contention. You have to respect the Hobson stable’s intentions of aiming her at tougher races, she must be showing some decent signs.

(4) High Delta is probably at it’s right level. Is trained by Maher/Eustace and John Allen is riding. It will have a lot of punters money for those two factors alone so you figure you’ll be getting “unders” by default.

Very happy to back All Tiara if Shea Eden decides to make the trip all the way to Warrnambool.

Race eight:

I anticipate there is going to be a bit of support for the Moroney and Wylde runners here. Quail Hollow looks very one paced and I was happy to oppose him at Kilmore. Obviously had an issue there, which makes him more of a risk to back here. While I can’t question the quality of Skyway Star, I feel the 1700m still might be too short for her.

After I’ve put a pen through those runners, rightly or wrongly, I really think (2) Holburt can run a really nice race. He’s put in some decent performances first up in the past and has been working really well in some local jumpouts. There might be a good price on offer, as many will be put off by the jumping form last prep. Holburt can be a nice each way play to wrap up the day.

The biggest danger to my eyes is (9) Isola Comacina, who has been running very consistently. If Soweto Haze wins in race seven, you’d surely have to bump up her chances here.

If Holburt is overlooked in the market, I think he can be a good each way bet in the last. Not quite a “blast out” proposition, he’s never really been the punters pal!