Mitchbet

We’re trying something a little different at Mitchbet this week. Instead of previewing a meeting in a far flung part of the Victoria, mainly because there don’t appear to be any attractive betting propositions, I’m looking to Flemington for some winners. We’ll return to regular programming when I look at Edenhope next Saturday. But until then, let’s see what we can find in town!

(Recent) History Says

The Roy Higgins Quality (Race 3) is a 2600m Listed staying contest which is a handy lead into the Adelaide Cup. What you might not know, or have forgotten is that two of the last three winners of this race were owned by Lloyd Williams. Here, we have the top weight (1) Nelson, trained by Symon Wilde with a certain L. Williams in the ownership.

He was first-up this preparation in the Listed Tourney Cup 2500m at Moonee Valley, under pressure at the 800m, but stuck on strongly and continued to take ground all the way to the line. Will be fitter for that effort and has some interesting Eurpoean formlines. He finished 4.5L behind superstar Enable in the Group 1 Arc in 2018. That alone puts him ahead of most of this field on class. An excellent bet at $9.

Tales From The Trials

The ATA/Bob Hoystead Handicap (Race 5) is an interesting race with some well credentialed sprinters like Hey Doc and Fabergino, and a couple of interstaters from Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. It’s the 3YO filly (10) Mutaseera that is the one that’s grabbed my attention. She’s had a jumpout and a trial prior to returning here, one under a very firm hold running midfield and the other she cruised to the line to win under her own steam. Had been on the heels of Swats That and finished 5th in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes down the straight here at Flemington in the Spring.

It’s been reported on RSN that the stable think she’s back in great form, has drawn well and wide in barrier 12 and carries 5.5kgs less than Fabergino, 9kgs less than Hey Doc! If she’s returned at the same level or improved a little, is a very strong winning hope here. On another note, I can’t All Banter anywhere near it’s current price. She can win without me.

Old Mate, Ole

In a Australian Guineas that has a bit of a tail to it, I’ve got to give the Caulfield Guineas winner Ole Kirk another go. Hit the line strongly in the Inglis Sprint at Randwick over 1200m, before taking on the older horses in the Futurity Stakes at Caulfield. He was caught in the quicksand near the rail and stuck on decently. Well, he stuck on as well as a horse that was running in quicksand would.

He has drawn the car park and will need an amazing ride from Kerrin McEvoy. That’s surely built into his price. But if he can return to his dominant form from the Spring, or even match his first up effort, he can flash down the outside and add to an impressive CV with another huge Group 1.

Aysar never runs a bad race. Cherry Tortoni could improve into this. Zou Dancer was very impressive to the eye last start. You can easily make a case for Dom To Shoot as well on his Truly Great form line. And Tagaloa, unfortunately for me, refuses to win with my money on. $8.50 for a horse with the runs on the board and turn of foot that Ole Kirk possesses, is too juicy for mine.

No Balls, No Glory?

An interesting runner in the $500,000 Inglis Sprint is the recently gelded (1) Larimer Street. A $450,000 purchase as a yearling, the talented galloper has shown flashes of brilliance in his eight start career. He won the Listed St Albans Stakes on debut, ran fifth in the Group 3 Vain Stakes at Caulfield, but also had a tendency to throw in some shockers.

Since the operation he’s won a recent jumpout, run third in an official trial and it’s very possible being two stones lighter may be helping him focus on the task at hand. He’s also got the tongue tie on for the first time here. It may be a little… ballsy, but at $26 he’s an interesting each-way bet and could run a cheeky race.

Sunday Funday

I couldn’t finish without mentioning one on Sunday. In Race Four at Ballarat, Princess Rheanys is entered in a 1600m maiden for trainer Peter Moody. Following a fourth on debut at Pakenham in October, Moody said she will be a black type winner over a bit of ground. She also holds a nomination for the Group 1 Australasian Oaks at Randwick, which would seem to back up that theory.

She comes into this off a quiet Pakenham jumpout, but unfortunately runs into Salto Angel who is already firmly “in the red” based on her impressive spring form. Princess Rheanys is one to follow, if not Sunday, the near future. She will win races.