Mitchbet

We have the pleasure of another Tuesday meeting at Bendigo. While it’s a track I usually love to have a crack at, it appears a very tough card. Several different form lines coming together, some new faces returning that we need to get a handle on and some horses that seem out of form that could just as well turn things around. It’s a day with only a few betting opportunities to my eyes, but some interesting runners regardless. Here’s a look at the first three events.

Race one:

The first event for 2yo’s has five first starters, which is always a fun way to start the meeting. Frostin’ is the early favourite based on runs behind Enthaar and Tycoon Humma. I wouldn’t go as far to say that he’s a “false favourite”, but he’s beatable and not sure he wins this race roughly one out of every two times (currently $2.20).

Fortune Legend (2) has jumped out smartly for a first starter. The play from me here is to wait until five minutes before the jump and if the market has started moving toward his direction, I’ll be keen to have a win bet on him. The Sadler stable love a bet. More than other stables, when the price starts to tumble, it’s usually a very good indication they think the horse is ready to win.

If Fortune Legend doesn’t get much support, I can see Highground (5) being an improver here. Had two jumpouts before his debut, where he improved into the second one and ran well with stablemate and stakes placed Wanaroo. Led and faded in his debut, but still only beaten 3.3L. Will be fitter for that and not the worst at $34.

It’s a very open race and you can make a case for several of them, so looking for some value around the favourite.

Race two:

If you’re a forgiving person like myself, Cornucopia (2) looks to have a bit of ability. Well, two abilities if you include her propensity to be slow out of the gates almost every start. Her run first up from a spell she was slow away (classic…), had to be used up a bit to tack on to the field. She still had a turn of foot to take ground off others in the straight running into 5th. The stable had taken her to town last prep with no luck, but finds a maiden of less depth here. It’s worth noting she jumped out well before her return and hence started favourite at Pakenham.

The two at the head of the market Divine Rule and Screwdriver look to be speedy customers, which may give horses from the back a chance to run on if they get caught in a duel. You might be dropping come curse words as the barriers open and Cornucopia flops out the gates last, but try not to panic. Some people like rollercoasters, others like backing horses who can miss the start and have barrier 1. It’ll be one for the thrill seekers, but King Callow has the ability to pick runs through the field and go past them with her turn of foot.

Race three:

By far the most interesting runner of the day for mine, also the most expensive, is the 3yo colt by Frankel named Aquilo (2). Sold for 300k and raced by OTI, his dam Stormy Lucy won eight races in the USA, five of them at black type level including a Group 1 and amassed $US850,000 in prizemoney. Breeding aside, he’s only been to the races once as a 2YO last season, where he was very green and found them a bit too sharp over 1300m. Returns at 1600m first up, has been working well with some seasoned older gallopers and comes into this off a second in a Avoca jumpout. Dean Yendall getting aboard is also a plus.

Of the rest, Tictoc Tictoc (12) is the clear danger. Ran well behind Dundirtcheap at Yarra Valley, who then won again recently, franking the form. There was a gap back to third which you always love to see.

Sometimes in punting, your heart wins out over your head. I’d much rather bet and lose on the the well bred Frankel colt Aquilo, than backing the favourite and missing out on the glory. Happy to take the risk and the $14/3.70 to see if he can show a glimpse of his pedigree. Sorry brain, you lose this one.