Mitchbet

It was a few years back I went to Super Saturday at Flemington, when a security guard approached me. Making small talk, he asked if I had any tips for the day. I instantaneously replied:
“There is a thing of Ciaron Maher’s in race 2 at Edenhope, it’s about $3, it just wins.”
“Oh I meant at Flemington.”
“Right. In that case Graff shouldn’t miss a place in the Newmarket.”

History tells us Graff ended up running fourth in the Newmarket. Which sucks for that security guard. But while everybody else was hooting and hollering watching some “important” Randwick race, I watched Think Music hug the rail and just hold on at Edenhope. I remember this so vividly because it was my only winner or the day.

I’ve had a look at the Edenhope meeting this Saturday and honestly, I wish I didn’t. Some of the races are very lacklustre. But, there’s still 8 winners to be found and with any luck let’s hope we can nail a few.

Please note preview was published before fixed odds were available.

Race one:
I can only see two horses that could possibly win this race. The first starter Calais Crossing (6) and Tonnarella (9). I have a slight leaning toward Calais Crossing for two reasons. Firstly, she’s had two very nice jumpouts where she’s been tucked in behind runners, moved well and not needed to be asked for a strong effort. The 4YO debutant has probably had more than her fair share of issues getting to the track, based on the fact Maddie Raymond is her third trainer. Both bits of work I’ve seen though she’s looked very sound. The second reason is I have a strong feeling early prices will have the exposed Tonnarella as the favourite.

Tonnarella has already had four career starts, two of those in town. However she hasn’t really blown me away on her recent efforts at the jumpouts. The counter argument is she has never seen a dry track on race day, which could improve her sharply.

If the markets go up as I expect, there could be some value playing Calais Crossing.

Race two:
I can see the bookies making Fizzar a really short favourite here. This is the weakest race she’s in a long time and has the addition of blinkers to sharpen her up. However, I’ve really liked the progression of Winning Deal (8) heading toward this and think he’s an interesting bet here. He’s a raw customer and while he’s looked very green in three jumpouts, two recent ones before this debut, he has improved with each experience. Handily, he looks to have a bit of early speed too.

The form behind Fizzar hasn’t really stacked up in recent weeks. The run at Donald initially looked like it was going to be a handy form line. However a few of those runners have failed to run well subsequently.

Happy to take a risk and back the first starter Winning Deal against what I think is going to be a really short favourite Fizzar.

Race three:
One of the shallowest races I’ve seen in a long time. If I had to bet, I could have something small on River Rhine (10) who will look to enjoy the step up in trip to 1850m.

Note that before it’s previous start, Lindsay Smith eluded to the fact he’s tried everything but he thinks his horse Khan Of Khans is a really limited galloper. He will most likely be up the pointy end of the market.

Race five:
A really interesting race with three strong winning chances. I’ve leant toward the 3YO filly Marchena (6) on top. The filly by Deep Field has started stringing together some good performances, including breaking through for her maiden two starts ago. She had run in some nice city races as a 2yo, while more recently horses coming out of her last start have been competitive in 58/64 grade.

The jumpout of State Of Class (1) before his first up run in Adelaide was excellent. He comes into this fitter for that and is definitely a danger. Rushin’ Rhonda (4) is the next best coming into this first up after nearly ten months off and a decent jumpout.

The Maher/Coffey combination will surely have plenty of supporters at Edenhope and I think Marchena can get another win here.

Race seven:
Really struggled to seperate Hard N Tough (2) and Farooq (4). Visually, I was really impressed with the Colac Cup win of Hard N Tough. But going back through the horses behind her, the form has fallen away big time. Farooq comes into this race off two 4ths in Listed races, albeit in Adelaide. He finished around city class horses like Mushaireb and Tarn’s Prince last start, either of those would be right at the top of this market.

Diplomac Jack (7) will be up on speed giving them something to run down from barrier 1 around the tight Edenhope circuit. A must if you’re taking any exotics or multiples.

Race eight:
The best form line coming into this final race is the 1400m benchmark 58 at Warrnambool on the 18th of Feb. On that basis I have Barangaready (3) the hardest to beat here. Has the tactical speed to be ahead of Unassailable in the run and has the fitness to be able to hold that lead to the post.

The blowout here is the Symon Wilde trained Now And Forever (5). She’s the antithesis of a “mare in form” with her last five starts reading 0x0800. On her best form, even from just 12 months ago, she is right up to her ears in this moderate 0-58. Worth noting she has had a jumpout between runs on Feb 2 where she split two Mitch Freedman gallopers Crowned Monarch and Moonlight Maid. Keen to have a small each way play on Now And Forever, in addition to Barangaready. Price depending of course.

Edenhope selections

Race one: Calais Crossing 1, Tonnarella 2, Kore 3, Mallee Boy Express 4.
Race two: Winning Deal 1, Fizzar 2, He’s God’s Gift 3, Coastable 4.
Race three: River Rhine 1, Khan Of Khans 2, Ozymandias 3, Zoumatic 4.
Race four: Toojay 1, Carlaluisa 2, Most Elegant 3, Satin Sheen 4.
Race five: Marchena 1, State Of Class 2, Rushin’ Rhonda 3, Final Ovation 4.
Race six: Blue Jay Way 1, Bellator 2, Georgethefifth 3, Enbarr 4.
Race seven: Farooq 1, Diplomac Jack 2, Hard ‘n’ Tough 3, Patch Adams 4.
Race eight: Barangaready 1, Now And Forever 2, Unassailable 3, Raiders Robbed 4.