Mitchbet

Saturday is All Star Mile day. The last week in Melbourne before Metro racing heads to Mornington and Bendigo for their standalone Saturday race days. While one eye will be on the $5 million dollar race, my main focus will be 163km down the Princes Highway at Colac. The back half of the program looks messy, which is lucky because those races will probably be bumped to Sky 2 for Rosehill anyway. Early in the day there are a few nice chances bobbing up in some low quality fields, which gets me excited for a bet or four.

Note: Preview published before fixed odds were available.

Race one

The first race is a 3yo maiden over 1200m and has probably got the best horse flesh on the card. That gives you an idea of what is in store later in the day. After sorting through some jumpouts of the debutants, I’m siding with the Henry Dwyer-trained (1) Art Dealer. The $80k purchase is not one of those debutants and has had two race starts. The first in a hot form race at a Bendigo metro meeting, the other start he was $10 into $8.50 and ran 4th at Ballarat. He finished alongside South Parade, who went on to win a benchmark 58 next start. Barrier 1 won’t be an issue and he should get every chance with the cutaway rail applying in the home straight.

(2) Rivinado debuts here after only one jumpout at Burrumbeet for Matt Cumani. He moved well and wasn’t asked for a supreme effort in that piece of work. You must respect (4) Cracker Belle on the home deck for Kylie Vella. Hit the line strongly at Warrnambool on debut but I feel will be looking for more than the 1200m second-up.

I’d be happy to take around $2.50 for Art Dealer to win the first race at Colac. He has the race fitness, experience and form on the board.

Race two

What’s the opposite of a punters pal? Because every time (5) Think Winning has gone to the races for Tony and Calvin McEvoy, this 4YO gelding has been friendless. Often under the whip and hard riding in jumpouts, he’s started “unders” in both his first two starts, before drifting alarmingly.

He has come back a different horse this preparation since moving to the McEvoy’s Ballarat stable and having a gelding operation. He won a jumpout under very little pressure before his return at Kilmore. There he was held up at the 500m, blocked for clear running at the 300m and showed a really nice turn of foot when he finally got out at the 100m. Should have won that race in my opinion, Saturday’s race is much shallower than that.

(8) Sharna Star for Colin Scott will be out in front and give them something to chase. Was on pace at Stawell last start, stuck on well for second with a nice gap back to third. Is fitter for recent racing and will be in the money again.

(1) Grabowski is an interesting runner, but I’m not going to tip a 6YO having his third start regardless of how solid he looked in a jumpout. (6) Elle Of A Breeze is coming into this first up without a jumpout so will pay to watch the market.

Very keen on Think Winning on Saturday. It’s the weakest race he’s seen in a long time and anything in black odds is a bet for me.

Race three

This 2000m maiden is a really tough field to line up. I’ve settled on one that should be at a bit of value with (2) Fizzique. This gelding by Fiorente ran 9th of 10 at Bendigo on the 2nd of March, but was hardly disgraced only beaten by 5L. He had won a jumpout at Bendigo leading into that and seems to be a stayer heading in the right direction. Anne Yates bought Fizzique for $50k and syndicated him herself, which makes me think she really likes him.

(8) Bullarook Boy comes off the bit very early in his races and last start at Werribee was no different. He looked no chance at the 200m yet hit the line strongly. The horses he finished alongside like Yesugei and Laughing Grizzley would be odds on in this race. He’s got an ugly racing pattern, but you must respect him on that performance.

(7) Ammishaddai is an intriguing runner. The 3YO gelding had two jumpouts as an unnamed horse in 2020 and finished a long way off the pace showing little speed. He’s had one more jumpout over 1350m prior to this prep and looked very one paced. It’s no surprise Matt Cumani is debuting him over 2000m because he will need every metre of that. The market again could be a good guide if there is significant support.

I’m not the most confident, but I think Fizzique can run a race and hopefully we get a bit of a price.

Race Four

On first look, I was almost about to declare Du Well as a moral. Beaten 0.2L at her last two starts at benchmark 58 level. Down in grade here. Whatever price, take it. It just wins.

The more I looked at the race though, I found myself being lured into the 7YO by Reward For Effort, (2) Sheriff John Stone. He hasn’t won a race since September 2018, which isn’t an ideal strike rate. He did however beat Fifty Stars that day, which is a nice tie in with the Dabernig and Hayes galloper lining up in the All Star Mile this same day!

Enough of the history lesson. Two starts back he had the bar plates on for the first time and flew past Du Well at Sale. Last start at Colac he loomed up to win and seemed to run out of gas. He pulled up with a post race cough which explains the lacklustre finish.

(3) Du Well is not without her chance. She has run well her past two and just been nosed out on both occasions. Like I mentioned previously, she stands out as the hardest to beat on most recent runs. But she could be very short odds here.

Numbers (5), (6) and (7) in this field have been getting beaten at the picnics and non-tabs and are unlikely to trouble the judge.

I think there’s enough speed here with Sticks and Forever Loud on the pace. Sheriff John Stone can sit out the back in the small field and use his turn of foot to blow by them. I think he’s a good bet if the bookmakers are offering around $3 to $4.