Mitchbet

It’s the final meeting of the night racing season at Moonee Valley this Friday. While eyes will be firmly and rightly focused on the Pies giving the dogs a pasting in the footy, there’s a really good quality card on offer here. I’d got a text from my brother in law saying that he was off to the Valley and if I could help find a few winners, let’s see if we can net him a few. Worst case scenario, I hear it’s only a short walk home on foot…

Race one

The first race is really tough to get a line on these runners. I’m leaning toward one with race experience in Hunnam (3). Has drawn nicely in barrier 4 with Damian Lane to ride. Has been in the market both starts and comes into this gelded and off a nice jumpout. Looks like Team Hawkes have opted to come to Melbourne to avoid the wet tracks in Sydney.

But it’s a race where I could make a case for eight of these horses. The best roughie is Fly On Bye (15) for M Kavanagh. Gets Craig Williams in the saddle and looked to have plenty in hand in a Werribee jumpout.

Race two

I can’t see why there is such a price differential between Valaquenta (1) and Muntaseera (8) so I’m putting the former on top. Valaquenta’s run in the Zedative Stakes at Caulfield was a lot better than it looks in the form guide, she was stuck on the inferior inside part of the track. Has met Muntaseera in the past and just been beaten 0.2L. Would much rather be on Valaquenta at the $9 vs $2.30 for Muntaseera.

Intrigued to see how Rights Of Man (7) measures up. Was backed off the map on debut at Kyneton. Is green as grass, but will be a better horse come the spring.

Race three

Was very keen on the border hopper Kyshaka before her scratching (she races in Adelaide on Saturday if you’re keen!). Not a race I’m keen to bet into anymore though. If pushed for a tip I’d have Cernan (2) on top. Highly rate the Luke Nolen/Peter Moody combination and will improve into this second up.

Race four

Every man and their dog is on Chica Fuerte and she definitely has solid claims. However, there was a bit of a spruik about Love Sensation (4) before her run in the Surround Stakes up in Sydney last start. Says beaten 5.4L but there was a gap from the winner to a big pack of horses including herself and Hungry Heart, Dame Giselle and Montefillia. Has had an extra week between runs compared to the favourite so will have a bit of freshness in the legs.

I’ve given up on Miss Guggenheim. Always gets way too far back and apart from her one win at Geelong, doesn’t run on. Has officially been sacked by me. Knowing my luck, she will come out and win by 10L…

Race five

Lesage (9) is the clear top pick for mine. Won last start this track and distance and importantly, she ran 55.14 seconds doing it. Has drawn barrier 9 so Oliver will hopefully be able to steer her around any slowies in the straight. The last thing you want at the Valley is to be back on the fence in traffic.

Mossman Gorge (1) was scratched from the Flat Knacker at Albury in preference for this and Matthew Dale has had some success raiding these Valley races in the past. Fine Dane (5) is the best of the horses $10+.

Pretty keen on Lessage.

Race six

Really tough mares race with seven of the eight horses being under $10 in the market. She’s getting a bit short now, but In Good Health (7) comes out of a Group 3 contest at Flemington where she was unlucky and to the inside of runners. Ran just as well as some of the obvious eye catchers who flashed down the outside of the track. Again, the Nolen/Moody combination is a positive and she has been $7 into $4.40. That market move is a positive even if it does hurt the hip pocket.

Quantum Mechanic (7) ran well to finish second in a race two weeks ago where the leader had it very easy in front. Can easily atone and is a mare in form, as the saying goes.

In Good Health is the top pick to win this second up tonight.

Race seven

The big Group 1 of the night and a race with chances aplenty. I’m playing it a little safe and putting the 7YO Hey Doc (1) on top. A lot of these more fancied runners are going to be in the back half of the field and looking to run on. Hey Doc not only has a great record at this track and distance, he has the tactical speed and a good enough draw to position in the first half of the field. Can hopefully land 3rd or 4th, one pair back and blend into the finish just around the home turn.

Strongly respect Portland Sky (12) after his win in the Oakleigh Plate. He rarely runs a bad race and think he’s the pick of the 3YO’s. I’m terrified September Run will be giving them too big of a head start so I’ve cooled on her chances.

The old-ish boy Hey Doc is a great each way bet in a really tough but interesting race.

Race eight

A field of 11 runners at time of acceptances has been decimated with scratchings. Maybe 10pm is past the bed time of some of these? In the four horse field, I’m pretty keen on the chances of Passionate Lass (11) for Team Hawkes. Has two wins from two career starts, has drawn barrier 1 and jumped out well leading into this. Also holds a nomination for the Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint at Randwick in a few weeks time, so the stable has an opinion of her.

Marabi has been very impressive in her first two starts. Has every right to be under $2 but you couldn’t possibly take the $1.35.

It’s pretty much a two horse races but I think Passionate Lass has a good chance to overcome the very short priced favourite.