Mitchbet

Now we’re at the conclusion of the Autumn carnival here in Melbourne, there has been a noticeable drop in quality of maiden runners at country level. Usually in the months leading up to the peak of Autumn, or Spring for that matter, you can often find stables taking their really expensive and well bred horses to far reaches of Victoria to get a maiden win and prize money up. One example that springs to to the top of mind is Tycoon Humma for John McArdle. She won a Bendigo meeting on a Saturday and she followed up a win going straight to town saluting again.

As we move closer to Winter and the days become colder and longer, it becomes a bit tougher to sort the wheat from the chaff. We’re left with a pretty even bunch of horses waiting for their chance to break through. It makes the job of the most thorough form assessors tough, let alone amateur or hobby punters! That’s the challenge of the game and if you can go into enough depth and know your form, the punting opportunities will still be there.

We head to Kilmore for yet another Thursday meeting. The rail stays in the true position for the second consecutive meeting and following a lot of rain, the track is in the heavy range. While being on speed in general is a plus, I’m anticipating the runners to get away from the fence during the day.

Please note: published before fixed odds were available.

Race one:

The first event has quite a few debutants and also several that come into this first up. Astronomicelle (10) is not one of those. The 3yo filly by Deep Field comes into this with three runs under her belt and after two solid runs in city grade. She was run off her feet first time at the Valley. Her second run in town was a leader dominated affair. Both times she hit the line well and looks a real professional type. Drawn well in barrier two, her dam Elite Elle won 2 from 2 on the heavy. Her starting price profile in the past means we might get a decent quote about her Thursday.

Out of the first up brigade, I could make a case for Rigel Star (4). He had trialed well at Flemington where he took the corners really wide and still picked up, under a hold. I love when they do that on the inner track at Flemington because they cover a bit of extra ground and are really tested. Gets bumped down a bit here for me because he’s coming into this first up on the heavy.

If they put up a silly price for It’s Toronado Storm (2), it wouldn’t hurt to have $1 each way on him. First start for a new stable, a host of gear changes and Tony Noonan has put his son on to ride after a fair jumpout. Could improve greatly with the change of scenery.

I’m happy to bet on the fit and running Astronomicelle and hopefully around the $5 quote. Some big name stables could take up a good percentage of the market.

Race two:

A tougher test to line these up. More debutants, one even hopping over the border from South Australia. I’m convinced that 3YO Jharana (2) has a motor and is going better than his recent form implies. He’s been caught flat footed when the barriers have opened his last two starts, had to work hard to latch onto the field and that has taken away some of his late brilliance. The $60k purchase showed his ability winning two really impressive jumpouts before his first up effort and has also been gelded before last start. Been at the pointy end of the market more often than not and I think if he can put it together, he’s right in this.

Fac (4) has shown early speed at the jumpouts and trials and could well go forward and lead here. The SA visiter Kong (8) was caught back and wide on the notoriously leader biased Morphettville Parks track on debut. Very forgivable on that basis, but is that form any good? Wild Rover (11) is second up after a gelding operation but is very green and still learning the caper.

A lot of the runners haven’t seen a wet track before which makes getting a guide on them tough. Backing the race fit horse in Jharana is a failsafe plan. In an open event, I’m going to take the chance that with a little bit of improvement, he can win his maiden and with any luck, at a double figure quote.

Race three:

I remember being really taken by the second placing of La Spezia (13) at her last start at Hamilton. She was 1200m up to 1400m that day, was beaten 0.2L but had an encouraging 3L gap to third. The filly was really starting to get through her gears as she was hitting the line, which makes going up in distance to the 1600m ideal. The form around her run first up has stacked up well, with two winners coming out and winning again. Drawn well in barrier two for Michael Poy and I can see her peaking here on Thursday.

The other runners in the field pose more questions than answers. Firstly, the two debutants Billie Frenado and Courtless Star running first up over 1600m on a wet track? That’s got to be a query. Lady Nelson for Maher and Eustace had a tough run last start, could they be going back to the well one too many times? Blinkers on for this assignment and it’s worth noting that John Allen is riding the one with race experience instead of the debutant stablemate.

I concede Adaleene (7) was good second up at Pakenham when beaten by Black Penn. Did look like she took a bit of time to wind up though. Glamzelle (11) has been around the mark but comes into this fifth up in her second preparation. The tank cold be getting close to empty.

The one with the least amount of questions and the most upside for mine is La Spezia and think this sets up really well for her.

Race four:

This is a really shallow race in my opinion. I can see a market where they put up the 3yo colt Imprinted relatively short after his trial win and the Maher/Eustace trained Justwins close behind.

There could be some value in the 4YO mare by Animal Kingdon, High Fashion (12). Her first up run was good, caught wide on a day it was advantaged to be close to the speed at Mornington. Ran 9.9L 6th second up, but in reality, the whole field was lapped by the talented Marabi at Pakenham. I can’t explain the performance at Ballarat, but she has had nearly a month between runs to recover. Has run well on the wet in previous campaigns and on that basis, is worth a bet.

Next best is the returning Busuttin and Young galloper, Volatile Stock (6). Will be one to follow over 2000m plus, but has the potential to beat these on raw ability alone. Wasn’t under much riding in two jumpouts and looks to have come back reasonably well for this.

I was all over Justwins when he just fell short behind the odds on favourite Dissonance at Werribee. His starting price profile leaves a bit to be desired, so it will be weird to see him in single figure odds. Imprinted has won a trial and a jumpout before his debut, but it’s a risk backing him first up at this trip.

On the anticipated wet track, High Fashion can be an improver in one of the weaker maidens she’s seen in recent times.