Mitchbet

By Brad Dare

Welcome back to another “Dare-y Does”. The segment returns after the resounding success of Degenerate Doomben, where savvy punters who threw their house behind it came away with a win for the good guys. Three winners from six tips and some hard luck stories gives us some room for improvement. We head west on Saturday to check out what the WA donkeys have in store. With the return of the saying “Back Pike drink what you like”, the bush “chook downers” are rejoicing. That will leave plenty of value on the table for the far superior, Eastern state punters to clean up. A nine race card with some small fields, means plenty of opportunities to tell your mates you “backed a winner!”

Race 1

Bella’s Idol (1) will be the obvious choice due to its impressive outing last start against better opposition. He’s now carrying 8kg more and I’m not convinced it should be so short. Has been a little inconsistent when lugging weight so I’ll look elsewhere.

Unreliable (6) showed a fine turn of foot with more weight on its back to win by a “Pavlich Schnoz” (a long neck) at Pinjarra two starts back. Scored an impressive win at his next outing last Saturday. I can’t look past it and is a good chance to make it three on the trot.

Race 2

Top weight Lord Lonsdale (1) looks too good here. Won two from three last prep, with his one loss being over the 1800m where it got chewed up late. Trialed nicely on the 15/3 and looks likely to lead from start to finish. Rhys Palmer could throw a shoe at this thing and it still wins! Nothing else threatens in the small field.

Race 3

Not a lot to go on here. Not much stands out from the trials or the few that have had mediocre runs with excuses. The most attractive of the excuses though is Queens Gift (4). She managed a gutsy 2nd to Pats Got Sass after being three wide for most of the race a couple of weeks back. Drawn better and strips fitter, will be happy if you can secure anything more than $3.50. Being WA Oaks Day, you can expect a whole lot of cash to go on Shezaclassychix (6) purely for the pretty name. When combined with a returned William Pike, will have the half of the state that’s pissed by race 3, riding it home.

Race 4

No point looking past Pike and Western Empire (1). At $1.15 it’s hardly worth wasting your time punching the number into the TAB machine. If it doesn’t win, it will be the biggest crime committed by a West Australian since Willi Rioli’s shepherd in the forward pocket of the MCG in the 2018 AFL grand final. What an absolute joke, would much rather support a sport with integrity and jiggers… (allegedly)

Race 5

Absolute shoulder shrug for this race. You’re best bet is to let your Mrs pick a horse based off who’s got the prettiest silks. At least you will have someone to share the blame with when you’re chasing your losses at the Cannington dishies at the end of the night.

Race 6

Wild Fusion (4) can definitely win this and at some decent value. It’s second here last start behind Bruce Almighty had a bit of go about it. The wide barrier is a slight concern, but with a bit of luck can feature at an each way quote.

Race 7

Now last article, Mitch was “displeased” that I would use form from quality tracks like Emerald for any other purpose than to use as toilet paper. This was despite the fact it was a nose short of running a drum at $20. That being the case, I have completely disregarded his wishes and looked towards Kalgoorlie for my next selection. Magniforce (6) resumes with a decent trial after scoring three wins in a row there last prep. Cashed-up, mining bogans will be putting on their best thongs, washing their mullets and heading down to Ascot on Saturday to watch the pride of Kalgoorlie go around.

Race 8

And now, WA blokes and blokettes. For the main event. The 2400m WA Oaks features some of Western Australia’s finest fillies. If only I could have them all, but like with most women, I’ll have to put the beer goggles on to split the top few. Placing in all four of her starts and now with Pike in the saddle, Pure Devotion (3) has opened the odds-on favourite. Not sure there is enough value there for me. I’d rather opt for Temptacion (4), who looked like she still had more in the tank in her last two victories. $3.80 seems around the mark. Steer clear of betting pre-post in the hope that the Pike favourite factor can squeeze out some extra value.

I might have a small place bet on the roughie There’s A Thought (9). From barrier two she gets an easy run and can be in the mix. This filly by So You Think hasn’t broken her maiden yet, but this race seems an odd choice on the quick backup. $13 for the place I will take.

Race 9

It would be un-Australian of me not to tip Pike in the last. If Shaquille O’Neal knows it (gambling advertising works) then why wouldn’t you load up? State Attorney (7) will have the pressure from punters across the country. River Beau (6) is a much more likely chance on form. But hey, who cares about form? I’d prefer the fairy tale ending to the day where degenerates across the country can roll that form guide up into a whip, give a little tap to the side, scream “kick”, then punch the air as the wizard salutes crossing the line. My WA mate Adrian advises me that he will skull a schooner out of an ashtray if Pikey doesn’t get up. So I guess either way, we all win

Happy punting.