Mitchbet

After a month in the paddock to freshen up, the Mitchbet blog is back! What better time to “get back on the horse” than the marathon that is 30 races in 3 days at the May Warrnambool Carnival. While I’ll probably go close to having a bet in most races, these are the events I’m keenest to play on Tuesday. Good luck and make sure to follow @MitchBetAU on twitter for any late mail/post race analysis/rage tweets.

Race four:

I really struggled to seperate Bubbly Lass and Finneas in the first event on the flat for the day. I’ve sided with the race fit filly Bubbly Lass (13). She hit the line well first-up after a six month break at Pakenham, only beaten by a smart debutant Comica. She also won a jumpout prior to that and with the benefit of a fitness coming into this second up, I think she’s the one to beat. With John Allen to ride and trained by the powerhouse stable of Maher and Eustace, it’ll take something special to run over the top.

Finneas (3) was in a jumpout with Lindsay Smith trained horses Great Again and Tydeus and showed that he has enough ability to be competitive here. Will be very popular among the locals as he’s trained at the track by Aaron Purcell and ridden by gun country jockey Dean Yendall. Coming into this first up is the big query and have him relegated to second pick.

Prosecutor (6) is one for trifecta or first four players and the grey gelding has a good draw and had a positive jumpout leading into this.

Race five:

There is a bit of a theme behind this meeting and it’s JUMPOUTS! First up horses, debutants with no official trials. Makes doing the form just that little bit…mysterious. I was really taken on the run of Cardigan Queen (3) at Bendigo, where she let down strongly in the home straight to finish second. That was a very strong maiden with a lot of well bred horses from good city stables competing there. Draws a much better gate in barrier 3, so won’t have to be so far back in the field. John Allen sticks with her again and at $4.50 is a very good bet.

I really liked the work of the Matthew Williams trained Rioyuki in her most recent Terang heat. Looks to be a raw kind of customer with a lot of ability and have her as the pick of the unraced brigade. Love the booking of Dean Yendall but find the $5 quote very much on the skinny side for a horse so green and unexposed.

Off the jumpouts, I was a little disappointed by Bullzeye Beauty, Madam Cha Cha and Zarina Bay and the market is pretty much with me there.

Think we’re getting a fair price for Cardigan Queen (3) and happy to be with her against some of these newcomers.

Race eight:

I’m really interested to see the Australian debut of Fifth Position (9) for Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr. The recently gelded 5yo has some really handy form over in England and showed a lovely action running second in an official trial at Cranbourne. Gets the services of gun jockey Damian Lane to ride, however will need a bit of luck after drawing barrier 16.

Fifth Position runs into several regulars of the country cups scene here. While I’m not knocking their endeavour or achievements, Fifth Position is the horse on the up while a lot of these others are around their mark and pretty exposed.

At $5.50, you’re getting a great price to find out if this classy galloper can measure up to this company first-up. There’s every chance could be very heavily supported throughout the day.

Race nine:

A tough race to sort out, but I have the locally trained La Vina (8) on top for Lindsay Smith. The 4YO mare was impressive winning a benchmark 64 race at Ballarat in February, albeit she did have every favour being gifted a run along the fence. Won with plenty in hand on her Victorian debut and the from from that race has lined up well, expecially with Legend Of Zorro. Looks to have been put away and saved for this carnival and Damien Oliver is a key jockey booking. Deserves to be favourite and I think anything around $3 is a fair bet.

I’ll be having a dollar each way on one of my old favourites, the veteran Soul Fire (2). I remember being stuck at the office one Friday afternoon in 2017 watching Penola races, when I saw a horse fly down the outside and brain them. I’ve been backing him intermittently ever since. Surprisingly, the 10yo gelding drops in class here from the Listed Hills Railway Stakes and following that, a BM70 at Ballarat where it was difficult to make ground. The wetter the better for him and at $41, it would break my heart if I missed him running another good race.

Good luck!
@MitchBetAU