Mitchbet

After a profitable first day of the carnival, we now roll onto Wangoom Handicap day. The second meeting of the punting extravaganza can often expose novice punters who, perhaps after a good day previous, bet irrationally or succumb to “big head syndrome”. If you can remain targeted, focused and not have too many “fun bets”, you can avoid ending up in a massive hole come the final hurdle on Thursday.

Trust me, I’ve been there several times. It’s hard to claw back that hard earned money at the dishlickers or the cheats in seats…

Please follow along during the day on twitter @MitchBetAU

Race one:

We start 40 minutes before midday with a 1400m maiden. There’s nothing quite like a morning punt and we can get things started with the 3YO debutant Almsgiver (1) for Warrnambool trainer Matthew Williams. Two years ago, stable star Harbour Views won this exact same race, for the same ownership group. This gelding by Contributor can definitely replicate those efforts by winning on Wednesday.

Comes into this off one impressive jumpout at Camperdown, where he was back, wide and ran on well against some well credentialed older horses. I respect Tintinwin (6) but feel like he’ll be better over a little more ground later in his campaign.

In a maiden without a lot of depth, I think Almsgiver will be a short but sweet way to kick off the day with a win. Keen to take the $2.40 on offer now, I think it wins this race at least 1 in every 2 runnings.

Race two:

I’ll be the first to admit, I’m a very big fan of the Daniel Bowman trained Typhoon Moon and have been backing her every start since debut. The 3YO filly by Kermadec has looked every bit of a miler since she her first start. Comes into this 1700m event third up after two strong placings at Werribee and Geelong. Is trained at the track and with stack of ability, it looks like this has been a target race for the stable to score a win during the carnival.

Her race pattern over 1400m trips has usually resulted in her being back in the field, but over the extra ground and from a good barrier, she might be able to position herself closer in the run. She’s a pretty fair price at $4.20, even factoring in that pattern. I’m convinced Typhoon Moon is a talented filly.

Race three:

Might be the weakest race of the carnival I’ve seen so far. But I guess what else do you expect from a 1700m maiden for 4YO or older horses?

I’ll be having a bet on the 6YO maiden having just his fifth start Grabowski (2). Sure to have plenty of fans on the day with the John Allen/Maher and Eustace combination, but the gelding by Street Boss has showed improvement through this campaign and will come into this close to peak fitness. Has the gate speed and barrier to lob in a positive position in the run, at $7/$2.45, is a good each way bet in a moderate field.

The Paul Preusker trained favourite High Ferocity has had six starts this preparation and his form seems to have tapered off recently. I am very comfortable to be risking him again today.

Race five:

I was really enamoured with the Camperdown jumpout of Continuance (6) for Linsday Smith. Showed really nice gate speed and led at a high cruising tempo before being restrained near the finish post. She’s had city form over in Perth and she was $3.70 favourite on her first start in Melbourne. There she was held up at the 600m and you had to forget she went around. Gets Damian Oliver in the saddle and from gate 1, might need to push some horses out of the way to get clear. Ollie’s already copped a suspension this carnival so a few extra meetings won’t hurt!

The favourite Mckeever for local Symon Wilde was definitely impressive on debut. The horse behind it, King Dick, has subsequently come out and won it’s maiden by 5L. However, the step up from maiden grade to a competitive benchmark 64, especially during this carnival is difficult. Even if Symon Wilde did scratch the stablemate to give Mckeever a clear run at this race, there’s not much value in the $2.50 on offer.

Happy to back Continuance at the current quote of $4.60, probably all the way down to $3. I was just that enamoured with it’s jumpout.

Race seven:

A local I like at a bit of a price is the 4YO mare Fiable. The Aaron Purcell trained galloper has been steadily improving this prep and she has strung three nice runs together. This culminated in her most recent win at Werribee. There she sat three and four wide in clear air, then ran past some handy horses in the straight. One of those horses, Honour Me won his next start. Joe Bowditch rides again and from barrier 13 can probably implement similar tactics.

The Lindsay Smith trained National Guard was supremely impressive last start at Terang on their Cup day. Technically it was a benchmark 64 on paper but the quality was not much better than the benchmark 58 that Fiable contested.

Would not surprise me if National Guard did go on with it and string a third win in a row, but at the price discrepancy I’m willing to have a go each way at the mare Fiable.

Race 8 Wangoom Handicap:

Bloody hell, what a cracking race! You won’t be able to get a tip out of me unfortunately and if I was taking a quaddie I’d be going very very wide. One to just sit and watch because I can make a case for at least 10 of these.

Race 9:

In another open race, I think Daniel Bowman can go close again here with Ornamental Lady (14). A lot of her competition are either going up or staying at a similar grade to last start. This 3YO filly by Epaulette is dropping down in class after running second at metropolitan level and following that with a “better than it looks” 7.3L defeat in the Bendigo Guineas.

Is drawn well here in barrier 4 and keeps regular rider Daniel Moor in the saddle. She’s another good each way bet around the $9/$3 quote.

Race 10:

Nikau Spur (5) has started favourite at all four starts since he’s arrived in Australia and after his super impressive run first up at Pakenham, he’s justified being $2.40 favourite for Wednesday’s event. The 4YO gelding was cruising in the second half of the field before taking a gap, accelerating through and putting away the race within about 50m. Easily won by 3.75L and could have won by more. He has the turn of foot of a good horse and is a deserved favourite and clearly the one to beat in the last.

Zende (6) has jumped out well before this assignment first up. Has run well on heavy and rain affected going in the past and is trained on the track to be ridden by Dean Yendall. I concede he can run a good race and is probably the danger.

Really keen on Nikau Spur as I’m sure many will be come 4.30pm on Wednesday. He has the turn of foot to get him out of a sticky situation, just make sure to bet early as he will most likely be crunched throughout the day.

Good luck and make sure to follow @MitchBetAU on twitter for any late mail/post race analysis/rage tweets.