Mitchbet

With memories of the glorious debut of Mitchbet when we covered a Saturday Bendigo Country meeting all the way back in February, we return to the scene of the crime again this weekend. The back end of the card looks very tough, however there are some interesting runners earlier in the day in the maiden races I’m keen to bet on. With races one and two both jumping before the clock strikes 12, do yourself a favour. Start your day right with a little breakfast punt and (hopefully) fill your pockets for a nice relaxing day in lockdown. Shoutout to all my fellow Victorians.

Good luck and make sure to follow @MitchBetAU on twitter for any late mail/post race analysis/rage tweets.

Race one

While watching the jumpouts for this 2YO maiden event, I had a rough betting strategy in mind. That was until I saw the jumpout of Ruby Mockingbird (11). This filly by Written Tycoon won her most recent Caulfield jumpout by such a margin, she was the only horse in shot after they had travelled 300m. Impressively, she wasn’t asked for an effort and ran the quickest time for the morning. This is her second racing preparation following a 7th on debut in a Blue Diamond preview, then finishing not far off talented La Roche at her second start at Pakenham.

I’m really keen on this 150k purchase trained by Lloyd Kennewell. My main concern is whether we can get a price that we can actually have a bet. Dabernig and Hayes, Maher and Eustace, even Ellerton and Zahra have runners in this race. Strangely enough, I think the biggest danger is Darceandermill for the Warren and Krongold stable. Either way, I hope the presence of these “big name” trainers, provides us with a chance to get on at a decent price.

I’d be happy to back Ruby Mockingbird at any price better than $2.50. It might be one for the early punters as I’m sure will have been spotted by many trial enthusiasts!

Race Two

Every time I look at this race, I keep find myself making a case for the sixth emergency Hackette (18). This 3YO filly by Contributer has only had one run and that was in NSW on a heavy track at Wyong. The form card says she was beaten by 12.7L, but the winner of the race, Exoboom won by nearly 7L itself so it doesn’t quite tell the full tale. She resumes here in Victoria after two quiet jumpouts and while 1300m might be at the very bottom end of her distance range, I can see her landing back of midfield in the run and hitting the line very strongly.

The favourite Huguenot has two placings to his name, but I have questions over the depth of that form. Is already well found in the market at $2.90 and being a Hancox Syndicated horse with a million owners, you can bet bottom dollar he will be heavily supported.

Many of the other runners here I find issues with. Some with poor jumpouts or trials before their resumptions. Or some that are already well exposed and appear to be limited gallopers. Others like True Impact, looked to have returned like a superstar in trials. That is until you do a bit of extra digging and it appears that he might just be a 6am Phar Lap!

Hackette is from a really good stable, appears to be progressive and be on some sort of upward trajectory. At $10 and $3.30 the place, that’s a really good bet in a maiden of some questionable quality.

Race Three

Firstly, I have some questions. How have these two well bred, well credentialed European’s landed in a 1500m maiden running for just $23,000 prizemoney on a Saturday? When did Lloyd Williams race maiden’s in Australia? And is there any danger they can make horses jumpout or trial before Australian debut?

The focus of many will be on the two at the top of the page, Aquileon and Hosier. However on the basis that 1500m will surely be shorter than their ideal trip, I was looking elsewhere for a betting proposition. Savvy Mak (11) for Paul Pruesker fits that bill.

First up this preparation at this very track, she jumped well, landed close to the speed in running and held on strongly to the line, finishing third. The winner that day was well backed and the second horse went on to win her maiden the following start. Savvy Mak gets a 2kg claim for stable apprentice Tatum Bull and with the extra fitness, can win second up at a juicy price.

I’m steering clear of Tycoon Moon on Saturday. I’ve been one of her biggest fans but her racing style is just too expensive to follow as a punter. Even with Linda Meech to ride, Tycoon Moon is sacked for me. I did like the quiet jumpouts of import Aquileon until I heard that the stable believes 1500m is much shorter than his preferred distance. Finally, I don’t care how close to Tiger Moth it ran back in June 2020, I can’t tip anybody into Hosier when there is no vision on how he’s acclimatised to Australian conditions. Especially at $3.70.

Savvy Mak is a big price here at $21 and $5.50 and I think she can surprise those more favoured runners with the fitness under her belt.

Good luck!
@MitchBetAU