Mitchbet

Following a late transfer of venue from soggy Warrnambool, the races head to Coleraine where the track is rated in the heavy range. Warrnambool trainer Lindsey Smith has brought with him a strong arsenal of runners, many of which are either odds on or shorter in pre-post betting. If he has a not-so good day, chances are many punters, myself included could be in a bit of strife. Good luck!

Race one

Very yuck race to start with. Tried to find a way to oppose Shock And Awe (4) but am clutching at straws. He’s a 120k purchase, has race experience and is from a leading stable. Hasn’t been at the races since September 2020 where he got knocked off by Something Foxy, who goes around at Flemington on Saturday. Would have liked to see a slightly better jumpout, but don’t think he’ll have to be fully wound up to beat this lot. $1.70 a bit short but if it eases slightly to even money ($2), seems a logical way to double your money.

The Peter Chow-trained Diss And Dot (8) comes into this third up after hitting the line strongly at Warracknabeal her last two starts. Had excuses her most recent run, but is fitter and has race experience. The form around her four race starts isn’t the strongest, but as we’ve established, it probably doesn’t need to be. Zoe Mae is the next best. Debutant Smart Mozzie has been off the bit and under riding in jumpouts, put a line through him.

Hoping for even money and for Shock And Awe to start the day a winner.

Suggested bet: Shock And Awe (4) to win if $2 or better.

Race two

Lindsey Smith has the short priced favourite again in Find Your Man, but I’m giving a chance to the stablemate and one of the outsiders of the field Thunder Fox (6). I’m pretty sure I backed him on debut at Ballarat after a nice jumpout (at this track in fact), however was never in the race that day. It was raining sideways and blowing a gale during the race, he was back in the field and never a factor. If you can be forgiving of that run, $61/$14 seems overs and definitely worth a throw at the stumps.

I’m wondering why Brett Prebble, a jockey who has been doing a heap of work for Lindsey Smith has jumped off Find Your Man to ride Patrick Payne’s debutant Darwin’s Theory. Darwin’s Theory has shown limited ability so far at the jumpouts and trials and while I’m a big Declan Bates fan, just seems a little fishy. Marking the favourite down a few points just because of that.

Sun Perle has been building fitness and hitting the line strongly for Mitch Freedman. Is also not without a hope.

Suggested bet: Whatever your normal bet is, half it and have something each way on Thunder Fox (6).

Race five

Rudhyar (5) looks every bit of a metropolitan class stayer. Don’t be fooled by the starting price profile first up, he was resuming at 1700m and trainer Lindsey Smith said he was half a run short but just wanted to get him over a trip. Was in the best ground but the win was still dominant. Second horse won again since. Prebble loves the horse and wet track will be a benefit.

Suggested bet: Rudhyar to win.

Race six

I’m not taking $1.45 for a horse that was beaten 7L in the same grade last start and has a 3kg claiming apprentice on. Sorry Irish Rockstar backers, leave me out of that.

Race eight

Playing with fire here and taking on the Lindsey Smith favourite and one of my personal favourites Tydeus. I’m siding with the Mitch Freedman-trained Bones (2) who resumes here after a solid summer campaign where he was competitive at metro level. Hit the line really strongly in a St Arnaud jumpout against Lombardo, who since won in Adelaide and is favourite this Saturday at Flemington. Jumpout form is obviously not everything, but it was a really nice piece of work from Bones.

Usually a big fan of Tydeus, but he’s coming into this with no trial of jumpout and has to carry 62kg. If he is fit and primed to go, he can win. But without that information, we don’t know. Daunting Magic next best after an impressive debut in May. Returning from a 12 week let up the main query with him though.

Suggested bet: Bones (2) to win.