Initially looking at this meeting, I found a plethora of horses I wanted to stick up for in most races. But the longer I scratched my head, watched video and looked into the form, I think I’ve found some really nice betting opportunities at Warrnambool this Thursday. As of Wednesday evening, the track has improved to a heavy 9 so make sure to take that into account. As usual, good luck and make sure to drop @mitchbetAU a follow on Twitter!
Race one
I’m pretty keen on the well bred colt Feudal Empire in the first race. He resumes here for his second racing campaign after three solid runs as a two-year-old. He also started favourite in two of those races at city level so is always well respected by the market. Is primed for this off a nice jumpout and I love the John Allen/Maher & Eustace trainer/jockey combination. Will be hard to beat around the $3.
Of the dangers, debutant Velours Bleu appears to have a lot of talent and wouldn’t shock if she ran a good race first up. She is nominated for some good races in the spring. Starlea is also one who can improve into her second campaign and a win probably won’t be far off a maiden win. Competitive field.
Suggested bet: Feudal Empire to win ($2.90).
Race five:
I’m making a case for the Kiwi-bred Sunday Buzz in this event. He’s making the jump from maiden grade to a Benchmark 64, but his win on debut showed he has plenty of ability. Trained on the track for Simon Wilde, the rise in trip to 1700m for a son of Zed suits. Love that Dean Yendall is riding him instead of the Price and Kent Jnr horse.
Concede that the Nick Ryan trained Facemask is the biggest danger. Was very unlucky last start at Moe and has been city competitive. I have queries over House Spouse after having every chance last start, Mark The Horse with the big weight, and Irish Rockstar who won a very moderate 64 last start and now has a 4kg claiming apprentice in the saddle.
Suggested bet: Sunday Buzz each way ($10/$3)
Race six:
Ballarat trainer Mitch Freedman returns to his old stomping ground and his 6YO gelding Bowing can go one better than last start to win this. Bowing has been “city competitive” at the 1600m-1800m trip and gets out to 2000m for the first time in his career. Is third up into this race and is not legless in the wet. That form behind Rudhyar at Coleraine, who I’m making a strong case for at Moonee Valley this Saturday, is very good. I’m excited to see this guy step out to 2000m for the first time.
Archie Alexander and Declan Bates (the dream team!) have Parisian Dancer who is the next best in my eyes. Got back recently and hit the line well for a 5th at Sandown. Also suited up to the 2000m. The “true” local Literati is next best but having to carry 61kgs and no claim is a concern.
Suggested bet: Bowing to win.
Race seven:
National Guard was flying for Lindsey Smith before failing as favourite in a race during the Warrnambool May carnival. Smith remarked that he may have resented the application of a bubble cheeker that day, which is removed here. Seemed to look forward enough when running a close second in an 800m jumpout at Stawell leading into this. If he’s close to being wound up, National Guard will be hitting the line strongly.
We’ll get a line on the form of Black Mirror early in the day when Find Your Man goes around in race 3. Third up and Dean Yendall are positives. Queries over the favourite Star Of Bengal dropping back from 1700m to 1400m for this.
Suggested bet: National Guard looks a strong each-way bet ($6/$2)
Race eight:
A horse from the trials that has caught my eye is one for the Linkin Park fans, Hybrid Theory. Having her first start for the Clayton Douglas stable, has had three jumpouts/trials heading into this, her most recent 4L win on the heavy at Cranbourne looked effortless. Was thrown in the deep end quite a few times as a two and three year old by former trainer Bjorn Baker, this mare by Brazen Beau may be improved by a move down south to a more hands-on trainer like Douglas. My only hesitation is that wife Jamie Kah hasn’t made the trip down to ride.
Rose Of Sebring grows an extra leg on the heavy and only misses out on being top pick because of the 4kg apprentice in the saddle. Shock And Awe surely has to be a risk with the 64kgs on a heavy track and jumping up from maiden grade.
Suggested bet: Hybrid Theory to win
Mitchbet 
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