Mitchbet

With the final meeting of the year on the glorious Ballarat Synthetic today, I’ve put together a little (big) quaddie to keep the afternoon fun. It’s been a great season with plenty of winners and it’s a surface that many of the good trainers aren’t afraid to make use of. If you disagree, change or add numbers you like and flexi as much as you want. Make sure to follow on @mitchbetau, don’t forget to subscribe and tell a mate!

Leg 1: 1-4-6

Leg 2: 1-3-6

Leg 3: 2-7-8-9-11

Leg 4: 2-6-8-10-11

$22.50 for 10%, 11.25 for 5%

Race 5 Benchmark 58 1000m

1. Kosowski: 66 rater who has been carrying a tonne of weight in benchmark 64’s, dropping down to a benchmark 58 race. Will fly in front with the apprentice on board.

2. Comic Rhapsody: Trained on track, consistent since coming to Melody Cunningham stable. 64.5kgs major query.

3. Buck Bay: Scratched

4. Champs D’or: Stable on fire this track. Came out of handy maiden in Feb. 4YO mare with less convictions than others. Must for quaddie. Has improvement on her side.

5. Just Abbey: Regular on the synthetic in 58 grade. Rock hard fit you’d assume, but perhaps has found her level.

6. Gorkan Express: Strung 3 wins in a row this time last year, two on the synthetic. Returning from wet to dry. Could improve sharply at odds.

7. Kuroyume: 8YO gelding who hasn’t competed at a TAB meeting since 2018. Going to go around him I think.

Tempted to go one out with Champs D’Or. Will also go with Kosowski (1) dropping back in grade, and Gourkan Express (6) who wouldn’t shock at big odds. Leg 1: 1-4-6

Race 6 Benchmark 70 1500m

1. Seberate: Been racing in Metro company before a last start 6th at Bendigo. Clear forgive run last 3 starts. Senior jockey engaged, can win.
2. Melodeon: Scratched.
3. Tanker: Was a talented 2YO and City winning 3YO. Resumed with a quiet trial and hit the line well enough in a race at Sandown. On best can win.
4. Faithful Diamond: Hate to pigeon hole but looks a wet tracker and this is a pretty good race for Ballarat on a Tuesday.
5. Write Your Name: Thought he was very plain last start. Back to the 1400m again and fitter, but been a long time since in the winners stall.
6. My Boy Birmingham: Clear top pick. Strongly run race last start, Herman Hesse has come out of that and won.
7. Ronay: Sentiment says yes. Brain says no. Has 7 wins at this relatively new track, but this is very tough.
8. Rebellious Lord: Up in class, down in weight. Hasn’t been able to get a winners cheque in last 5 starts although constantly in the places. Taking on again.

There’s two ways to play this. The short priced fav one out, or chase value and importantly glory. My Boy Birmingham (6) goes in, if he gets beat Seberate (1) and Tanker (3) are the other two you want. Leg 2: 1-3-6

Race 7 Benchmark 58 1500m

1. Pufnstuff: Won last start on the synthetic at Pakenham but winning runs are usually spaced.
2. Garbo: Been competitive at all 3 runs this prep. Drops in grade but 1 placing from 4 starts on the synthetic is big negative.
3. Storm’s Colours: Nearly scored a surprise win first up. Stable had a crack over the longer trips as a 3yo. 1600m seems ideal and can win second up.
4. Culily Ace: Was in a highweight race last start. Can’t win, sorry guys.
5. Don’t Make Me Wait: Probably needs further and a bit easier. Not here.
6. Quick Enuff: Big unders off a last start win against some very very average horses. I’m going to take a set against her and leave her out all together!
7. Hot Seat: Up in class from a 0-58 but has 3 wins from 10 starts on the synthetic. Fit and one of the winning hopes.
8. Valentino’s Own: 4YO mare by Savabeel who was dominant breaking her maiden in good time this track. Should be favourite over Quick Enuff. Top chance.
9. Gaucho: Ridden out to win a recent Burumbeet jumpout that gives me enough hope it could be set to run well first up. Worth including.
10. In Her Honour: Not going well enough and would probably need to run a career best to win.
11. Solar Flash: Keeps trialling well even though hasn’t been putting in on the track. Tongue tie first time, maybe had breathing problems? Better chuck it in, just in case.
12. Tuffnut: Gets back and doesn’t run on which is less than ideal.
13. Lord Mapperly: If he wins, I’ll be losing.
14. Lividas: Former Darwin runner, so can handle the sand. Hasn’t finished closer than 7th in 4 runs this campaign.

Valentino’s Own (8) can easily take the step from maiden grade and make it back to back wins against these. Storm’s Colours (3) was impressive at Kilmore last campaign. He has upside and goes in. Three roughies you must include are; Hot Seat (7) who’s rising in grade with some decent form, Gaucho (9) off a good jumpout and Solar Flash (11) could magically learn how to race again with the addition of a tongue tie and onto the synthetic. Completely leaving out the fav and hoping for some value. Leg 3: 2-7-8-9-11

Race 8 Benchmark 58 1200m

1. Cracking Night: Has strung 2 wins together however is going up in class here.
2. Telekinesis: Been competitive in 58 grade before pulling up lame last start. Senior jockey on board a plus, can make amends.
3. Too Viennese: Trainer been out of form for quite a while. Not today.
4. Big Acheeva: Second in a recent trial and a stack of gear changes. 3 placings from 5 starts on synthetic. Probably wants further.
5. Logo Logic: Tough run first up and going to give him a miss here.
6. Secret Hero: Would not be shocked if he measured up to 58 grade based on his efforts at this track/distance early in the prep. Albeit maiden grade!
7. Star Selection: Scratched.
8. Sunflare: Has strong second up form and raced in much better class than this in previous campaigns. A must.
9. Azoustic: Looks to be finding 1200m too short so looking past him today.
10. Delightful Icing: Was competitive in tougher Benchmark 58’s than this in June. Blinkers on first time gives me hope she can go one better.
11. Testa Rock: 3L win, big stable. Maiden win might not have been so good. Goes in the quaddie, but is a risk.
12. Runaway Max: Don’t personally rate Alexandra picnic form at a TAB meeting…

I reckon we might take five runners in this final leg and hope the short priced favourite doesn’t measure up. Testa Rock (11), said favourite goes in just in case. Telekinesis (2) can atone for last start. Secret Hero (6) can easily measure up off his other runs at the track. Sunflare (8) on her day could smash this lot. Blinkers on means Delightful Icing can return to winning ways. Leg 4: 2-6-8-10-11