Mitchbet

It’s Tuesday racing and I’m making the short trip down the highway to Geelong for their 9 race card. Weather looks to be fine and track to be around the good 3-4 range. The rail is out to 9m in the home straight and that combined with the outside 5m being aerated, it wouldn’t surprise me to see jockeys head to the outside fence as the day goes on!

Best Bet R3 N2 Chief Conductor

Next Best R5 N3 Appealing

Best Value R7 N3 Double Delight

Race 1

Had she not drawn barrier 1, I would have been extremely keen on Typhoon Moon (10). Has been knocking on the door for what seems like an eternity and was beaten by a pretty good one first up. Daniel Bowman might have worked out she’s better at 1400m than 1800m.

Jayeffthunder (5) looks to be a horse with solid ability from the Hawkes stable. Hasn’t been asked for an effort in both jumpouts ahead of his debut. A win wouldn’t surprise but it’s hard to make a strong case without seeing him under riding.

Champagne Witness (8) has tactical speed and you can bet if there is a jockey to look for an early track pattern, it’s Dean Yendall. Is extremely consistent with 7 placings from 10 starts.

Around the $4 mark is a fair price and I can’t help but think Typhoon Moon’s first win is right around the corner today.

Race 3

I was very impressed by the jumpouts of the Peter Moody trained Chief Conductor (2) ahead of his debut here. The $600k purchase out of group 1 winning mare Snitzerland was asked for an effort in his most recent jumpout and idled around his opposition, oozing talent. I think he is clearly the one to beat here and could eventually be city class over the summer periods.

Alavista (7) seemed to work through her gears well in a Caulfield jumpout ahead of her debut here. She will win races I’m sure but she might have just run into a really nice horse here. If she got out to a crazy price ($10) I could have a saver on her too.

No Baby No (11) was backed as if unbeatable on debut here two weeks back and was run over late. The two mentioned above might have her measure today, but she does have the benefit of race experience.

I really like Chief Conductor here and he’s almost the highlight of the meeting for mine. Might be worth taking the early odds (currently $2.80) in the event he tumbles in close to jump.

Race 4

The Matt Williams trained Sachem (7) has been incredibly unlucky to run into two very nice horses at his last two times to the races. Was runner up to Petani, who gave the track record at Hamilton a shake two back. Then he beat all bar Guardian Spirit who was never getting beat last start at Geelong. I back Dean Yendall to have his eye in by race 4 and while there is a slight query on if he wants the 1540m, I think he’s the pick of them.

I can respect Rhythmic Dragon (14) for Liam Howley on the basis that horses by Alpine Eagle have been showing some ability in his short time as a sire. I could see an improved showing for Magic Promise (12) with the increase in trip and Damian Lane in the saddle. It hurts me to take on Torekov for Archie Alexander and Declan Bates but I want to see him under race conditions before jumping in.

Sachem is right at the bottom of his price now ($2.80) but is the main winning hope. If he gets in shorter, I might be tempted to play one of the above roughies roughie on the each way.

Race 5

An eye catcher on debut for the Archie Alexander stable, Appealing (3) looks like she’ll eat up the 1755m on offer today and looks a strong winning hope. The 4yo mare by Frankel was eased to the rear of the field last start, before picking up ground and working strongly to the line under Declan Bates. Synthetic hoof filler off for the first time suggests that she might have overcome hoof troubles. If the track is playing fairly or to those coming from the back of the field, she’s a massive chance here.

I could not and would not back Salto Angel (7) with stolen money at the $2.20 quote. The runner up in the 2020 VRC Oaks is still a 13 start maiden and must be giving punters and to a lesser extent owners a massive headache.

Appealing (3) is a good bet now at $4.60 . Salto Angel’s scratching affects the market as I didn’t really think it was a winning hope even though it was short.

Race 6

This is a very yuck race. On her form albeit in maiden grade in the autumn, I can make a case for Sarnia (10). Won a very moderate maiden by 7 lengths last start and a lot of these haven’t been hugely competitive in 0-58 grade.

It wouldn’t be a huge jump for Sarnia (10) to measure up to this grade. If you’re not so keen for a bet, perhaps keep your powder dry here.

Now let’s speed through these last races!

Race 7

Double Delight (3) has jumped out well enough to be a player here at the 1440m. The only time fresh for the Cumani stable she ran second at this track and trip. Could show up at $8.

Race 8

Giving the old gelding Villa Sarchi (5) one last chance. I thought he was good against the pattern at Geelong two back, the same race Castile comes through. Didn’t handle the tight track and over raced at Ararat last start. Gets a senior jockey back on board and I think he can run a cheeky race.

Race 9

Was very keen on Ethekwini before her scratching. The tip here might be to dash home early and beat the copious amount of traffic leaving Geelong Racing Club on a Tuesday arvo…