Mitchbet

It’s been a while between drinks but there’s nothing like a Warrnambool meeting on a Thursday arvo to get the juices flowing. It’s one of my favourite places to bet because of the quality of the stables that send their horses around. You can almost always pencil in three to four winners to be locally trained, so lets try to sort the wheat from the chaff!

Race one

I tried to find something to oppose her, but I’m really taken with how the Mitch Freedman-trained Divaring (5) has come to hand. After failing in stints with the John O’Shea stable in Sydney and Peter Moody at Pakenham, the magic waters/freezing cold at Ballarat seems to have given this mare by Sebring a zest for racing that wasn’t visible in early trials. Since coming into the care of Freedman, she’s won a Kyneton jumpout before looping around them to hit the line strongly over 1600m at the tight turning Werribee circuit. The step to 2000m suits.

It seems to me that the Nichols stable has taken their last roll of the dice and gelded favourite and well bred Yes Yeah Always (3). They’ll be hoping that does the trick otherwise the stable might be out of options if he can’t break through here. I think the real danger is the South Aussie visitor West Cliff (2), however he started $31 in a Stawell maiden on the 7th of Jan.

Not sure I could take $2 for Divaring, but if she can hold her price at around the $2.40 mark, I think that’s a solid bet.

Suggested bet: Divaring to win ($2.40)

Race two

While I concede the favourite Money For Old Rope is a winning hope, he seems very short at $1.90 considering the horses he hit the line with last start at this track. He may be able to improve into this, but I preferred the debut of Prospettiva (8) from a different form reference. The kiwi bred filly owned by OTI should have finished closer with a better run in transit and seemed to be going through her gears nicely at the end of 1400m. She was 5L off the winner, but he (Van Roy) has subsequently won again at 64 grade.

I’m intrigued by one at the bottom Twocot House (9). A $170,000 purchase for Noblet Racing, this filly by Shooting To Win was well back and never in the race on a bit of a road at Terang. Declan Bates is riding her instead of the Lindsay Smith runner, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an improved showing today.

I think Prospettiva is a nice horse and could definitely give the favourite who’s already into the red, a run for his money.

Suggested bet: Prospettive to win ($5.50), half your normal bet on Twocot House each way ($17/3.90).

Race three

The three year old’s are the ones to beat here, and I’m in the corner of Last Girl Love (10). She and the favourite The Big Heist met in a Terang jumpout recently, where Last Girl Love showed good gate speed to lead them up before being run over late by the latter. The McEvoy stable is very astute with educating their debutants and this one looks ready to go. Her mum used to go alright as well!

The Big Heist (7) is definitely a winning hope. Has jumped out well and is probably a deserved favourite. Spirit Beast (6) is in that same boat as one with plenty of upside and on his given day can easily knock off a maiden like this.

In a race where I have three horses on a fairly level playing field, I look to the market. I don’t think there should be such a great margin between Last Girl Love and the other two, so I think that’s where the value lies.

Suggested bet: Last Girl Love each way ($10/3)

Race four

I really like this race from a talent perspective, but not as a betting proposition. If you twisted my arm, I’d rate them in order of Rojean (12), Shellaquin (9), Grinzinger Rocket (11) followed by the favourite Kemi (8).

I’d open up the shoulders if Rojean or Shellaquin bobbed up in a weaker maiden, they both look to have ability. I was hoping to see Grinzinger Rocket further up in trip however they’ve only gone up 100m here.

Suggested bet: Nil

Race seven – Port Fairy Cup

The very short priced favourite and friend of MitchBet, Tuvalu will be incredibly hard to beat. But at $1.50, he is also incredibly hard to back. Jumped out like a star at Terang ahead of a return and form around Toorak Handicap and Golden Eagle winner I’m Thunderstruck looks miles too good for these.

I think the better bet and way to finesse some money from the bookies is to play another local Zoltan (6). Goes “up” in grade from a benchmark 78, but is dropping from metro to country class. This is his second start for the Symon WIlde stable since being brought over from New Zealand where he ran 5th in a group 2 over 1600m. If Tuvalu is not on song today, which seems to sometimes happen with these Lindsay Smith shorties, I think this might have been a small target race for the local Zoltan. Linda Meech in the saddle is a positive also.

Suggested bet: Zoltan each way ($8.50/2.15), perhaps more the place.