After a short (long!) spell, the Mitchbet blog is back! What better time to “get back on the horse” than the marathon that is 30 races in 3 days at the May Warrnambool Carnival. While I’ll probably go close to having a bet in most races, these are the events I’m most keen to play on Tuesday. Good luck and make sure to follow @MitchBetAU on twitter for any late mail/post race analysis/rage tweets.
Race 4 R&M Security Maiden Plate (1200 METRES)
A bit of a speculative play to get the ball rolling, in a race with some unexposed runners. At the price, I can make a strong case for the Mitch Freedman-trained and extremely well named Birthday Suit (12). The filly out of Nakedinaspa had four runs in her first prep including a start at listed level. Importantly she’s been in jumpouts with some well credentialed older gallopers such as Adelaide Ace and Guizot, both who go around in an open event later in the day. That’s usually a good measuring stick that the stable think she has ability.
Definitely not a chips in bet as you have to be wary of Harbin, Mio Capo, or even the Peter Chow duo.
Suggested bet: Birthday Suit (12) each way.
Race 5 – 1:45PM Callaghan Motors VOBIS Gold Strike (1000 METRES)
Relatively keen on the favourite and locally trained Bubble Palace (4). This $180,000 filly by Rich Enuff was a very professional winner on speed at Ballarat on debut with some big margins back to second, third and fourth. You can bet this race would have been circled on Daniel Bowman’s calendar for a while being on the home deck with the big prize money on offer.
Willing to take on the Kennewell-trained filly Dusse. Has visually trialed excellently, however they always trial like superstars for the stable. Will hopefully not get lured in by the booking of jockey Jamie Kah.
Suggested bet: Bubble Palace to win.
Race 7 – 2:55PM Mercedes-Benz Vobis Gold BM70 Handicap (2350 METRES)
I could be wrong, but this looks a race in two between the 4YO geldings Cadbury Castle and Boyszee. After the barrier draw, I’m siding with the Lindsey Smith-trained Cadbury Castle (9). Having only three prior career starts, this gelding by Camelot showed mountains of ability to put away his maiden at Geelong on a heavy 10 by 7L. His first up run over 1850m on Terang Cup day was equally as eye catching, making up a stack of ground in the home straight. He does have his quirks, laying in and out very abruptly in his most recent run. However, the motor and turn of foot of a good horse is there. Will be in the back half of the field and flying down the middle of the track late.
Suggested bet: Cadbury Castle (9) to win.
Race 10 – 4:30PM Thoroughbred Club of Australia BM64 Handicap (1100 METRES)
I’ve been a big fan of Spinning (18) since her maiden win at Stawell and think she’s a great chance to end day one of the carnival in style. She was extremely competitive in some good races as a 2YO before having a spring 3YO campaign under the tutelage of Tom Dabernig. She again was the eye catcher in several high quality black type races only being a few lenghts off the likes of Flying Evelyn, Sneaky Five, Lady Of Honour and Decent Raine. She’s coming into this off two jumpouts, the second was a very controlled effort wearing blinkers that are applied on raceday for the first time here. Gets some weight relief as a younger filly against older horses and barrier 9 is a good draw to find the best part of the track. Think this filly by Pierro has some class about her.
Suggested bet: Spinning to win.
Mitchbet 
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