Mitchbet

It was a Sunday like most others and I’d had a bet in a stayers maiden at beautiful Ballarat. But something was different. The race actually had a lot of depth. You can often find these fields quite thin once you get to 2000m or further however in this event there were six strong chances.
The winner, Double Delight for Matt Cumani had three previous runs this preparation since arriving at his stable. She came the widest in the straight to avoid trouble and fought off the favourite.
She will obviously have to leave maiden grade now and depending on where she lands, may be competitive in whatever that event may be. But for argument’s sake, lets look at the horses in behind the winner. Who will stick in maiden grade and more than likely come up against weaker opposition than this lot.

Suppression
A $100,000 purchase from Karaka, the Chris Waller-trained runner out of Mongolian Khan is bred to stay. Has now had 4 runs this prep and has been well in the market every run after his debut. Had drawn the inside at Ballarat switched off the heels of runners at the the 250m. By that time the winner, Double Delight, was already ahead of him down the outside. Suppression had to get out, build to top gear, but was unable to close the gap, going down 0.4L.

The obvious one to follow out of this race and sure to have plenty of support at it’s next start because of the trainer and starting price profile. Still holds a nomination for the ATC derby ($101 on Sportsbet)

Bonamassa
The locally-trained Bonamassa had come off a nice second placing at Pakenham on the 14th of January, where he held off another runner in this race Yulong Shout. He was five weeks between runs, however did have a Camperdown jumpout in between where he was ridden with intent.

There’s a pattern with Archie Alexander’s horses, where he likes to work them really hard in the most recent jumpout before a start. You may see one of his under hard riding, or even under the whip and be put off. More times than not, if you see an Archie Alexander horse under pressure at the jumpouts, you want to be on that upcoming start. Declan Bates going on to ride is also a statement of intent from the stable, meaning he was going well enough to win.

If Bonamassa simply maintains his Ballarat performance, he will knock off a maiden at a similar distance range very soon. He might also be slightly overlooked as the form says beaten 3.6L.

Yankee Diva
The real reason I was watching this race. After a pretty unlucky weekend, the last of my “Off The Beaten Track” plays was this 3yo filly by Americain.

She had shown improvement in her jumpouts to show that she had progressed into a handy stayer. First up, she blew the start at Kilmore and finished well for second. That day there was more of an advantage to be on speed. At Ballarat she missed the start again, which is starting to become a bit of a costly habit. She had a decent run in transit at the back of the field, Luke Currie moved off the fence before the home turn and attempted to come out wide with the winner. The big girl managed to pick up ground into fourth. Unfortunately this punter held an each way ticket.

A really impressive effort keeping in mind also she was only second up. Her starting price profile means she could very well start in double figures again next time and I definitely won’t be jumping off. Even though I’ve been burnt twice already. She also holds a nomination for the Australian Oaks ($201 Sportsbet).

Yulong Shout
He came into this race as the horse who tied in the formlines of Bonamassa from Pakenham and Lady Nelson from Sale. Started at $9.50 in the market, had the blinkers on for the first time and just had a race to forget. From barrier 10 jumped pretty well, but was then caught three wide and had to work the whole way on the uphill back straight at Ballarat. Daniel Stackhouse then took off early to try and kick clear but the damage had already been done. He faded out to a distant 8th, but not much had gone right.

This one could be a bit of a long term watch. He’s now gone for a well deserved spell, but by the time he returns and a few of those mentioned above get into the winners stall, this form could read a lot better than it looks now.

There are a few horses to follow from a maiden that I think was stronger than average. Stick them in your blackbook and we’ll be making a collect in the near future.