The ups and downs of a three day racing carnival can sometimes get the better of us. And after a moderately successful first meeting, day two was a lot tougher and definitely character building.
Almsgiver in race one was well supported into the short quote of $1.90, however left itself too much to do late in the race and could only manage to finish third. To make matters worse, we were knocked off by MitchBet regular Tintinwin!
I was extremely keen on Typhoon Moon in race two and I wasn’t alone. Trainer Daniel Bowman mentioned in a pre race interview she had been set specifically for this race and was his “best of the day”. He also mentioned that the filly was in season and acting up. The stable had their doubts and so did I. She loomed up like a winning hope rounding the turn but faded badly to finish 9.2L 5th.
It was after race two, my confidence was shot. Grabowski looked to have kicked clear before being reeled in to run second in the third event. Another gut punch, however still a collect on the each way.
Continuance gave us hope with a commanding front running performance under Damian Oliver. The former Perth gelding, coming off an impressive jumpout, held off the highly touted Symon Wilde trained Mckeever. From there it was a bit of a wait until the good thing of the day in the final event, Nikau Spur.
I wasn’t alone either. The 4yo gelding trainer by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace had been $2.50 into as low as $1.70 shortly before the barriers opened. However once they did open, he settled in the last half of the field, tried to come wide around them and hardly took any ground off the winner. The winner, Corner Pocket, was the third for trainer Lindsay Smith for the day.
The unthinkable had happened. Two well backed horses we’d got “overs” on had been beaten. We’d had a horse beaten by her hormones earlier in the day and the one winner we did find, this tipster forgot to place a bet on…
On to Thursday!
Day three of the carnival to me looks the hardest and most competitive days this week. So much so I can only find one standout bet at the meeting.
Race two:
Of all races on the card, I think Butter Blonde (7) is a really strong winning hope in race two. The filly by Choisir has the advantage of race experience on her side, with the highlight being a 1L third to Dosh on her form card. Following an ugly run first up at Caulfield where she led and faded, she has since returned to the jumpouts where she scored an eye catching win without being asked for much of an effort. It’s worth noting she gets a tongue control bit on for the first time here.
Unlike some of these newcomers, we know for a fact Butter Blonde has speed to burn and has a positive jockey in Michael Walker that can take advantage of that. I concede that Under The Dunes will be hard to beat off it’s last run, but at $5 I think the price differential should be a lot closer.
Three of the Peter Chow debutants went around in a Terang jumpout on the 19th of April and they were incredibly hard to sort out. Especially when we know that Chow can stick heavy or lightweight jockeys on horses during jumpouts and that information is unavailable to punters to gauge the performance.
I’m finding it really hard to catch the Matthew Williams runners of late so have given up chasing them. Dean Yendall is a key indicator of intent from the stable on Royal Fox that he’s their number one seed, but he can win without me.
Butter Blonde should be a lot closer to favourite in my opinion and at $5 looks a good bet.
Horses I’ll probably back during the day, but couldn’t tip with a head of confidence:
Race 7 Grand Annual Steeplechase:
I’m no jumps expert but this seems like it’s been a long term target for Yensir (5) since he arrived at the Maher/Eustace stable. Beat champion Zed Em in his first start over the bigger fences and Steve Pateman sticks.
Race 9 The Warrnambool Cup:
Former Warrnambool boy Mitch Freedman returns to win the Cup with his 4YO mare Moonlight Maid (11), by Puissance de Lune, the sire he had so much to do with in his time with Darren Weir. The story writes itself! She stuck on well for a tough, on pace 4th at Caulfield last start and with apprentice Will Price to ride, will be encouraged to roll along in front. Worth a spec at $15’s.
Good luck and make sure to follow @MitchBetAU on twitter for any late mail/post race analysis/rage tweets.
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